As the calendar flips to the summer months, we gradually approach the months-long general election cycle that will inevitably saturate television commercials, social media platforms, and news outlets.

And there are already significant developments that are taking shape that will affect the advertising landscape.

Political spending is expected to be higher than in previous elections, particularly in key regions and swing states, which have become more competitive. Both local and national levels will see heavy spending, with PAC money playing a significant role due to their deep pockets and willingness to pay higher rates. Currently, 34 states will hold elections for the Senate and 11 for Governor races.

Political windows like this can wreak havoc on your advertising strategy if you are unprepared. Here, we discuss three political ad trends you can expect as we inch closer to Election 2024 and how you can navigate your brand at a notoriously competitive time.

Political ad spending to surge at a local and national level

Political TV advertisements are projected to reach north of $7 billion in total TV ad spend, increasing by 7.5% compared to the 2020 election. At a local level, as many as seven states are considered to be key to the election with ad spending (TV, radio, digital, etc.) already taking place.

During political windows, the demand for advertising space significantly increases, leading to limited inventory and higher costs. Political campaigns, especially those with substantial funding, are willing to outbid other advertisers, creating a competitive and expensive environment.

Inventory can remain tight immediately after political windows due to the backlog of ads bumped during the political period. This can also affect ad rates and availability for weeks following the political window.

So, what does that mean if you are a brand looking to advertise during this window?

Brands might choose to avoid advertising during political windows due to the high costs and the risk of their ads being pre-empted by higher-paying political campaigns. Political ads often saturate the market, with the potential to dilute the effectiveness of other advertisements and impact brand message clarity.

For brands with time-sensitive promotions, such as grand openings or specific event-based campaigns, avoiding political windows may not be feasible. If you are a brand that advertises to a sports audience, know that going into the fall when almost every major sports league is in season, the competition will be high and that ad spots will be at a premium.

If you are advertising during this time, you can navigate these challenges by leveraging historical data, comparing similar markets, and adjusting strategies to avoid being priced out or having ads bumped by higher-paying political campaigns. This might mean avoiding swing states or adjusting advertising periods to maintain effective campaigns without inflated costs.

Advertisers can choose less politically active markets to avoid the heaviest ad competition. For example, in Q3 of 2024, choosing California markets over Florida due to different primary schedules can help optimize ad spend.

Continuous monitoring and adjustments are necessary to anticipate the unpredictable nature of political spending and its impact on advertising.

Agencies and vendors cannot fully predict spending until it occurs, requiring constant monitoring and adjustments to navigate daily changes effectively. This vigilance is crucial for tracking what is airing and determining the best placements. For example, sudden substantial spending by politicians can cause other advertisers’ spots to be displaced.

Conversely, if political spending falls short of projections, it presents opportunities to negotiate lower rates and secure premium programming, but only for advertisers who are diligently monitoring the situation. Vendors typically do not proactively offer these lower rates.

Digital ad spend will grow, but linear remains the best stage for this moment

Political spending has been ongoing this year and is expected to ramp up this summer after the first presidential debate in late June.

According to eMarketer, 45% of all digital political ad spend in 2024, is projected to go to CTV. While there’s more CTV inventory than 2020, US CTV ad spend is projected to be three times higher than in 2020.

While digital advertising is growing rapidly, political campaigns are still spending most of their ad money on traditional media, particularly linear television. This indicates that linear TV remains a preferred and effective medium for reaching and engaging voters.

News shows and late-night television are a staple for linear TV and are expected to be the primary targets for these advertisements. Currently, political campaigns are spending variably, with some spending $100,000 on short 4-day ad flights and others spending $1 million on monthly ad flights.

Brand safety will be a priority as political ads heat up on social media

Brand safety should always be a priority when advertising on social media, but your brand should exercise extra caution during an election. That means choosing the right platform that fits your brand message and one that also has guardrails and fights to prevent inappropriate or problematic content.

While certain social platforms have garnered attention for their instability, more challenges will test users and advertisers. While misinformation will always be a problem, experts anticipate an uptick in AI-driven false and misleading information.

To effectively avoid putting your ad dollars in a problematic media channel, it is crucial to do your homework by researching the reputation, audience, and any past controversies associated with a media channel before committing to it. Look for reviews, industry reports, and case studies to gain a comprehensive understanding. Also, research to see if there were any problems in a previous election cycle or if there are any announcements about future initiatives to safeguard ad placements and transparency measures.

After you choose a platform, regularly monitor the media channels you choose to help ensure that the content aligns with your brand values and objectives. To prevent your ads from showing next to unsuitable content, brands can get another layer of security by using ad verification tools like DoubleVerify, IAS, or Moat.

While brand safety is a significant concern in digital advertising, it is less controllable in TV advertising during political windows. Political ads run across all networks and programs, leaving little room for selective ad placements.

Having a strategy (and a partner) is the key to a successful election season

Whether it’s the primary or the general election, this time of year can throw a wrench into a consistent advertising schedule. That’s why having a playbook that reflects current ad election trend strategies is invaluable.

Ocean Media helps to guide brands through the complexities of political ad seasons, providing expertise on when and where to advertise to maneuver through the political ad surge.

Having a media buying and planning partner is important during this time because agencies can leverage their vendor relationships and industry expertise to mitigate some of the challenges posed by political windows. Clear communication about potential impacts and proactive planning can help optimize ad performance even during competitive periods.

To learn more about how Ocean Media can level up your media strategy, contact us here.